Having been defeated in its efforts to teach Manmohan Singh a lesson the left faces a major challenges in the next General Elections. Saurabh Gupta points out what these are in West Bengal.
The trust vote on 22nd July may have been an important event in Indian Politics and with the government having survived the left must be licking its wounds after it efforts to topple the government failed. But there are many more problems in store. It has had to expel one of its senior most politicians and speaker Somnath Chatterjee who maintained his dignity by refusing to appeal against the expulsion and quitting active politics. Obviously the party members in West Bengal are not too happy with this decision as Somnath Chaterjee is a respected figure and has been with the party for a long time. Karat’s efforts to enforce discipline have not gone down to well in a state where the party is in power but facing severe criticism for its handling of the Nandigram crisis. Many CPI-M leaders in the state like Subhash Chakraborty have publicly stated their disapproval of the decision and the much touted unity of the left seems to under threat.
There is still time for assembly elections in the state but the bigger headache is the parliamentary elections scheduled for next year. The Panchayat elections have seen the fortunes of the party dip and the Left would certainly not want a repeat of this in the next elections. In the last general elections the Left did exceptionally well but it will be difficult to emulate that kind of a performance this time. There are many reasons for this. If the Congress and the Trinamool Congress decide to go together then definitely that becomes a worry for the Left. However what is comforting for the left is that Somen Mitra, once a bitter rival of Mamata Banerjee has now left the Congress, formed his own political outfit and joined hands with her. The congress in such a situation might want to refrain from forming a coalition with her. This would definitely help the left.
A bigger problem for the Left is Nandigram. It has still not returned to normal and hostilities between the two warring groups have not ceased. More importantly the intelligentsia seems to be unhappy with the government and its handling of the situation there. This may have a rippling effect and if it does then it certainly becomes a headache as their bargaining power at the centre decreases. That is exactly what they don’t want. Besides with many in West Bengal are disillusioned with Somnath Chatterjee’ s expulsion which going to make it even more difficult for the party to motivate its cadres for an all important election. Besides these issues, others like the Rizwanur Rehman case will be used by the opposition which makes it even more problematic for the CPI-M led Left Front. Infact some of the Left Front partners have also voiced their differences with the CPI-M and this is not a good sign for the Party that has ruled the state for more than 30 years.
With the CPI-M boss openly proclaiming that an alliance with the Congress is unlikely in the future, he must be clearly looking at creating the third front. But how far will the CPI-M go with the likes of Mayawati? Though they share common views on many issues it is going to be difficult to form a government with her. She will be demanding and how many of those demands the CPI-M can accommodate remains to be seen.
But strange things have happened in politics before and almost every political party has survived tough times. It would be interesting to see what happens next year. Will Singh be King or will Karat have the last laugh basking in the glory of an actual third front?
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